To: Interested Parties
From: Sara Schreiber, SVP of Campaigns, LCV Victory Fund
Date: October 30, 2026
RE: In the Energy Election: The Energy Bill Voter Will Decide

President Trump and Republicans in Congress have repeatedly broken their promise to lower costs in favor of giving handouts to Big Oil, Big Polluters and monopoly utility companies, while taking millions in donations from them and cutting the clean energy projects that would lower costs. This summer, voters saw record high utility bills and astronomical gas prices. Meanwhile, Big Oil and Big Tech raked in record high profits while hardworking families continued to struggle. Trump even celebrated oil companies’ profits as a central point of his closing argument. This energy agenda has been an economic disaster for voters and a looming political disaster for Republicans up and down the ballot.

We identified Republicans’ self-inflicted vulnerability on energy affordability early on and were consequently able to deploy our biggest midterm investment ever, over $110 million, aimed squarely at voters’ concerns. We focused our efforts on targeting a new voting bloc, the “Energy Bill Voter” – this bloc of swing voters are more likely to be Women, Black and/or Latino, non-college-educated, less engaged with politics, independent, moderate, or soft partisan voters – critical voters to win in a midterm. To reach these voters, we went on offense and invested more and earlier than ever before in districts Trump won in 2024 to communicate with voters early about who is responsible for their rising energy costs and cutting clean energy. 

Reports are calling this year’s midterms the “Energy Election.” A recent analysis from Cook Political Report noted that the “doubly disenchanted,” a similar swing voting bloc, “draw the line on lowering gas prices and energy costs, giving Democrats a 37%-27% advantage – suggesting it’s the one critical pain point that could ultimately cause them to defect.”

By the Numbers

By the end of Election Day, LCV Victory Fund and affiliated state and national entities will have targeted millions of voters through knocking on over 4 million doors, sending over 6 million pieces of mail, and serving streaming, linear TV and digital ads to tens of millions of voters.

Over $110 million invested in priority races for the 2026 election cycle including: 

• $28.5 million for Senate races 
• $28 million for House races
• $14 million for Governors races
• $10 million for state legislative races 
• $7 million for other races (local, judicial, utility commissions, etc)
• $28 million in contributions raised through GiveGreen
• $2 million invested in GreenRoots, LCV’s members-focused grassroots organizing campaign

LCV Victory Fund’s federal Dirty Dozen list of candidates who consistently side against the environment and are running in competitive races that have a serious chance to affect the outcome, includes villains like Jon Husted who has raised utility bills in Ohio, pushed for taxpayer dollars to bailout FirstEnergy, and has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from data center interests, and Michael Whatley, who is a former lobbyist for Big Oil and Duke Energy. Every candidate on this year’s Dirty Dozen has a record, a vote, a lobbying history, or a policy position that is helping drive up the electricity and heating bills their own constituents pay, whether through blocking or repealing clean energy projects, providing handouts to dirtier and more expensive fuels like oil, coal and gas, or embracing costly dirty data center buildouts without protecting ratepayers from the bill or the pollution. In the states, LCV state affiliates nominated 12 of the worst candidates in the nation at the state and local level who have consistently voted to raise energy costs, kill clean energy jobs, and take funding from corporate polluters.

The Strategy Behind the Numbers

Our priorities this cycle included: 

• Flipping the U.S. House and Senate to put federal power back into the hands of pro-clean energy and climate leadership and block Trump’s dangerous agenda.
• Supporting state affiliates to elect pro-clean energy and climate candidates to governors’ offices and state legislatures to strengthen states’ ability to unlock new policy progress and counter harmful and costly policies enacted at the federal level.
• Supporting our state affiliates’ efforts to win targeted races for down-ballot offices that have an outsized impact on clean energy and climate policies, such as public utility commissions.

Our three core strategies:

1. Invest to win and build power for clean energy: Early investments in a smart mix of paid media that leverages voters’ anger about skyrocketing utility and gas prices, giving those voters who are feeling the pain of high energy costs the facts about who is to blame.
2. Target “Energy Bill Voters”: Using research and data modeling, we identified the most persuadable voters for a message focused on energy affordability.
3. Meet voters where they are online: A tailored mix of paid media, via streaming services, content creators, and digital platforms such as YouTube, whose popularity has grown dramatically in recent years – especially among swing voters who are less engaged in politics.
4. Connecting with voters on the ground: Investing in on the ground, door-to-door  conversations to make sure that some of the hardest-to-reach voters and those least likely to vote knew that energy affordability was on the ballot.

The Messages

From votes for the Republican Tax Law to supporting Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran, incumbent Republicans have had multiple chances to address rising costs. Instead, they cut clean energy projects, gave tax breaks to data center developers and corporations, and drove utility bills up. Building off the momentum of 2025, where New Jersey, Virginia, and Georgia elections were defined by voters’ anger over utility bills, we saw not only a clear political opportunity, but a desire from voters to see real, concrete action to tackle rising energy costs. With this landscape in mind, we communicated with voters early about the energy affordability crisis and the role incumbent Republicans played to make sure voters knew which candidates had real plans to lower costs, including energy costs, and who would continue to put big corporations and campaign donors before our families and communities.

With voters already frustrated with rising energy costs, we expanded our energy affordability message to include data centers, Big Oil, and corruption – demonstrating yet again how Congressional Republicans are working for their wealthy donors over their own constituents. This included highlighting Big Oil’s record profits and big political donation checks to Republicans, all while families try to keep their head above water as energy costs soar. Republican Senate and House candidates had key ties to Big Oil, monopoly utility companies, Big Pharma and Big Tech, with many of them receiving campaign contributions.   

Since 2025, opposition to data centers has grown tenfold. Voters across the political spectrum are now expressing concerns about water pollution and rising energy costs as a result of increased data center development across the country. Yet, Republicans in Congress have failed to address the rising data center concerns and even overwhelmingly voted to give data center developers tax breaks. To add insult to injury, Big Tech and Big Oil have teamed up to build out dirty data centers that run on coal and gas, which will drive energy costs up for local residents and contribute an estimated 30% to carbon pollution.

In addition to these messages, we continued to connect with voters on the need to elect climate champions to office who will ensure access to clean air and water, protect our public lands, and provide real support during extreme weather events, with more details below.

The Senate – $28.5 Million

We made significant investments in key races that could determine the balance of power in the chamber:

In Iowa, where the water crisis that has links to rising cancer rates has been front and center of the Senate race, LCV Victory Fund invested $3.2 million to elect Josh Turek to the Senate. The spending included digital ads highlighting Ashley Hinson’s record of voting against clean water protections, while also taking money from corporations that are contaminating Iowa’s water (Looked Away). The digital ad strategy also included featuring a powerful testimonial from Iowa mom, Tara, who expressed her concerns about the safety of the water her family is drinking and her frustrations with Ashley Hinson’s votes on protecting clean water (Worries).

In Maine, LCV Victory Fund invested $770,000 to elect Troy Jackson and defeat Dirty Dozen member Susan Collins. The spending included a 9-piece direct mail campaign focused on Susan Collins’ allegiance to President Trump and her votes in the Senate that have resulted in higher costs across the board for Maine residents, including for gas, home heating oil, and healthcare.

In Michigan, where local officials have been leaders on clean energy development and implementation, LCV Victory Fund invested $6.8 million to elect Abdul El-Sayed and defeat Dirty Dozen member Mike Rogers. Spending included digital ads focused on Rogers’ record of supporting cost hikes on utilities, groceries, and prescriptions (Sold). In the final weeks of the cycle, we launched additional digital ads contrasting Mike Rogers’ connection to Big Pharma, which spent over $1 million to support his campaigns, with Abdul El-Sayed’s promise to refuse corporate PAC money (Owns). In addition to our digital ad campaign, we partnered with the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy PAC to open 5 field offices and knock on 2 million doors to connect with 170,000 voters about Mike Rogers’ record of raising costs, including utility costs.

In New Hampshire, LCV Victory Fund invested $1.4 million to elect Chris Pappas and defeat John Sununu. Spending included digital ads about John Sununu’s history working for Big Pharma and Big Oil lobbyists and highlighting how corporate interests are spending millions to help re-elect him to the Senate (Making Millions). We also launched a 7-piece direct mail program calling out Sununu’s support for Trump’s healthcare cuts, tariffs, and the Iran War, which is driving up the price of gas and heating oil.

In North Carolina, where residents are still recovering from the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, LCV Victory Fund invested $500,000 to elect former governor Roy Cooper and defeat Dirty Dozen member Michael Whatley. In partnership with EDF Action Votes and NRDC Action Votes, we launched an ad campaign totaling $1.5 million focused on Michael Whatley’s two decade career as a lobbyist for Big Oil and Duke Energy, who are now backing his campaign for Senate as Duke Energy requests rate hikes on North Carolina families (Their Man). 

In Ohio, where the data center debate played a crucial role, LCV Victory Fund and partners invested $9.9 million to elect Sherrod Brown and defeat Dirty Dozen member Jon Husted. Spending included digital ads on streaming platforms focused on Husted’s support for data centers, including his campaign being boosted by data center interests and his subsequent vote to give $80 billion in tax breaks for data center developers (Face). In partnership with EDF Action Votes, we launched a digital ad campaign focused on Husted’s role in driving up utility bills for Ohioans as a result of the taxpayer funded bailout of FirstEnergy that he negotiated (Husted Hike). We also ran an 8-piece direct mail campaign which targeted persuadable voters by providing layered communication about Husted’s role in the FirstEnergy scandal, his support for data centers, and his record of raising electricity costs. In addition to our digital and mail campaigns, we joined forces with the United Steelworkers Union (USW Works) through our joint super PAC, the New American Jobs Fund, and the Campaign for Family Friendly Economy PAC,to open 4 field offices and knock on 1.2 million doors to connect with 150,000 voters about Jon Husted’s vote in support of the Republican Tax Law and his record of raising utility costs. 

In Texas, LCV Victory Fund, together with our partners, invested $5.7 million to elect James Talarico and defeat Ken Paxton. The spend included digital ads focused on Ken Paxton’s record of corruption and his pattern of prioritizing personal financial gain over the people of Texas, highlighting his impeachment on charges of obstruction of justice, bribery, disregard of official duty, misapplications of public resources, and conspiracy for using his office to help a donor and himself (Fortune). In addition to our digital ad campaign, we partnered with the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy PAC and the United Steelworkers Union through our joint super PAC, New America Jobs Fund, to open 4 field offices and knock on 400,000 doors to connect with 60,000 voters about rising cost of living, skyrocketing utility bills, and James Talarico’s plan to lower costs. 

The House – $28 Million 

Working to take back the House from Republicans and elect climate champions in crucial House races was a top priority for us. This cycle we ran programs in 35 House districts, 31 of which Trump won in 2024. Our paid media investments included broadcast and digital ads to connect with voters on a wide range of issues, including energy affordability, corruption, and data centers in key house races. In addition to our paid ads, we launched field operations in CO-08, FL-25, MI-07, MI-10, OH-01, OH-09, OH-13, VA-01, VA-02 and WI-03.

This year we also significantly expanded our content creator program. The program included working alongside local creators in key House districts to run ad programming for platforms like YouTube and Meta. In MI-04, Ricky laid out how Bill Huizenga’s support for data center developers and votes are raising utility costs in Michigan. We ran similar programs in CA-22, FL-14, FL-22, MI-07, NY-17, and PA-10. 

Some of our core messages of our 2026 House program included:

• Energy Affordability: Chief among voters’ concerns this cycle were rising costs, including energy costs. We connected with voters on this message early and consistently leading up to Election Day, with a wide range of ads that included first person testimonials from local residents about how rising utility costs have impacted them (Long Haul (AZ-06) and Everywhere (PA-10)). Additional examples of ads focused on energy affordability include ads opposing John McGuire in VA-05 (Helped), Gabe Evans in CO-08 (Scooby and Can’t Afford) and Anthony Constantino in NY-21 (Selling Out). These ads emphasize the impacts both Trump’s tariffs and the War in Iran have had on families, specifically focusing on rising gas, utility costs, and grocery prices.
• Early Investment: At the start of July, we launched a $4 million ad program in five House districts Trump won by 5 or more points in 2024, AZ-02, FL-07, MI-04, NC-11, and VA-01. This was the earliest paid media investment we have ever made in U.S. House races. These ads called out Republicans for cutting clean energy supply and raising energy bills through their votes for the Republican Tax Law (Skyrocket). In Michigan and Arizona, we partnered with Somos PAC who helped to expand the program’s reach to Latino and Spanish-speaking voters (Súper ricos). The second wave of this program, which launched in August, featured testimonials from voters who were experiencing rising utility costs as a result of Republican incumbents’ support for the Republican Tax Law (Tom). Ad testing of this program found that it was effective in moving vote choice a net 4 points toward the Democrat in AZ-02, MI-04, and VA-01.
• Data Centers: Opposition to data center development and its environmental impacts rapidly surged from 2025 to 2026, presenting a clear opportunity for us to connect with voters on an issue that linked climate impacts, rising utility costs, and at times, corruption. LCV Victory Fund invested nearly $6 million in TV and digital ads related to data centers this cycle. To kick off messaging on data centers, we launched a digital ad campaign in seven House districts. The tongue-in-cheek ‘90’s Infomercial style ad called out Congressmen Brad Finstad (MN-01), Tom Barrett (MI-07), Derrick Van Orden (WI-03), Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06), Zach Nunn (IA-03) and Rob Wittman (VA-01) and Republican candidate Aaron Flint (MT-01), for taking money from data center developers and voting for or supporting giving them $80 billion in tax breaks(Incredible Deal). Ad testing determined that the ads increased unfavorability for Republicans by 8 percentage points and moved vote choice towards Democratic candidates by 4.7 percentage points.
  
  Data centers continued to be a core pillar of our House strategy and included additional broadcast and digital ads in AL-02, MI-04, NY-17, and NV-02. In MT-01, digital ads also connected the issue of data centers to public lands, highlighting efforts to sell off public lands to data center developers (Charlie). Digital ads in MI-07, featuring a long-time Republican Richard, discuss why he plans to vote for Will Lawrence this election and cites standing up to data centers as they drive up energy costs and fighting to protect clean water as primary reasons (Sign Up). In our field operations in VA-01 and WI-03, we also connected with voters on their concerns around data center development and subsequent rising energy costs.
• Corruption: As voters grew increasingly frustrated with Republicans using their positions to enrich their Big Oil and monopoly utility company donors while utility and gas prices skyrocket, we connected with voters on the screens they watch most to ensure they know who is working for them and not against them. In NC-11, LCV Victory Fund ran an ad opposing Jennifer Balkcom that focused on how she has received campaign donations from Duke Energy and her votes to cut costs for corporations. The spot also featured Asheville resident Andrea, who expressed her concerns about her skyrocketing energy costs. Other ads that highlight Republicans’ ties to corporate interests include, Pissed (CA-22), Works Hard (MI-10), Struck (PA-07), Six Times (PA-10), and Everything (WI-03).
• Insurance Affordability and Water Quality
  
  • Home Insurance and Extreme Weather: In the final three weeks of the election, LCV Victory Fund launched a $2.3 million ad program in FL-14 and FL-22 focused on rising home insurance costs driven by extreme weather in Florida. The program included digital and TV ads supporting Kathy Castor (In Case of Emergency) and opposing Casey Askar (Stuck) and came at a time when rising home insurance premiums were increasingly becoming an affordability issue for voters. LCV Victory Fund also ran digital ads in FL-14 calling out Mike Beltran for his record of bailing out the insurance industry that’s driving up rates for home owners and contrasting it with Kathy Castor’s commitment to lowering costs and fighting corruption.  
  • Water: In IA-01, LCV Victory Fund ran digital ads focused on Mariannette Miller-Meeks votes to slash cancer research and make it easier for corporations to pollute water. The ad features local resident Rachella, who expresses her concerns about the rising cancer rates in Iowa and their connection to water contamination (The Feed).

The States- $30 Million

At the state and local level, there are critical races paramount to the future of our environment and democracy. As Trump and Republicans in Congress continue to roll back clean energy projects, vote against clean air and water, and threaten our democracy, now more than ever we need state and local leaders to protect our families and communities. That’s why our state affiliates invested over $30 million in 2026 to help educate and turnout voters this cycle. 

For a full breakdown of many of these races, please see our memo highlighting the most important state and local races to protect our environment and democracy.

Opportunities for New Trifectas
Across the country there are clear opportunities for Democrats to gain new trifectas that would enable transformative policy progress. In Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, our state partners are among the largest investors in efforts to win these elections: 

• Alaska: The Alaska Center’s IE invested over $400,000 across key state legislative races and in support of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for Governor, investing in digital, mail and canvassing programs.
• Arizona: Chispa Arizona PAC invested $400,000 in layered field and paid media programs to drive turnout in key state legislative races to support diverse climate justice champions, flip control of both legislative chambers and re-elect Governor Katie Hobbs. 
• Michigan: Conservation Voters of Michigan PAC invested over $5.5 million to elect Jocelyn Benson, protect the state Senate, and flip control of the state  House. This program included digital advertising, direct mail and an expansive field program in partnership with LCV Victory Fund and the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy PAC. 
• Minnesota: Conservation MN Voter Project invested over $700,000 in layered digital and mail programs to expand the state Senate majority, win an outright state House majority, and boost Amy Klobuchar gubernatorial campaign to continue pro-conservation leadership atop the state’s government. 
• Nevada: Nevada Conservation Leadership PAC invested $1.25 million in digital ads and paid field to secure a new pro-conservation and clean energy trifecta and support Aaron Ford for governor. 
• Pennsylvania: Conservation Voters Pennsylvania invested $1.15 million to expand the narrow pro-environment majority in the State House and flip the State Senate. This included digital ad programming and field organizing to connect with voters on rising utility costs and building out clean energy.
• Wisconsin: Wisconsin Conservation Voters IEC invested more than $3 million to help gain control of the state Assembly and elect real pro-environmental majorities. This spend includes statewide digital ad programming, door-to-door canvassing resulting in 160,000 knocks, and mail to voters in key legislative districts.

Climate Champion Governors
Beyond the opportunities to flip control of Governors’ mansions or create new trifectas, our state affiliates also invested early to elect new Governors who have made clean energy, protecting public lands, and climate action key pillars of their promises to voters.  

• Deb Haaland in New Mexico: CVNM Action Fund invested $250,000 in digital ads in support of Secretary Haaland early in the primary to defeat oil and gas backed-candidate Sam Bregman. Secretary Haaland has made protecting the state’s public lands, water quality initiatives, and lowering energy costs with affordable clean energy centerpieces of her campaign.
• Hannah Pingree in Maine: Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund supported Hannah Pingree for Governor of Maine early, investing $825,000. This marked the first time in the organization’s history that it backed a candidate in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. The bet paid off with Pingree narrowly winning the primary thanks to MCV Action Fund’s support. Pingree has a long track record of environmental success, from spearheading the state’s most recent climate action plan, helping install over 100,000 heat pumps, and passing laws to remove toxic chemicals from children’s products.

Governor Races
Our state affiliates’ top priority gubernatorial races this cycle to protect or pick-up were:

• Alaska – $250,000
• Maine – $825,000
• Michigan – $3 million
• Minnesota – $400,000
• Nevada – $1.25 million
• Oregon – $300,000
• Wisconsin – $1.5 million

Our state affiliates were also involved in the Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey (2025), New Mexico, Ohio, Vermont, and Virginia (2025) governor’s races.

Some ad highlights from our state affiliates’ 2026 governors program include: WCV IEC’s “Helping Them,” NCL PAC’s “Rising,” Conservation Ohio’s “Good Thing,” and MCV Action Fund “Mainers Know.”

Public Utility Commissions
Public Utility Commissions regulate utilities and have an outsized effect on the clean energy transition and utility bills. These are appointed positions in most states, however, a subset are elected roles where voters have the chance to decide whether utilities will continue down a path of dirty, expensive fossil fuels or build out an affordable clean energy future.

• Chispa Arizona PAC invested $650,000 to flip two seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission. The ACC is frequently highlighted as one of the most important state level decision makers for the future of clean energy. This critical board oversees utilities and can set a clean energy mandate for the largest utilities in the state. Recent victories in the Salt River Project Board elections in April indicate that this year is the best opportunity to pick up seats on the ACC and set the stage to flip control of the Commission in 2028 to ensure Arizona’s clean energy future. 
• Georgia Conservation Voters Action Fund invested over $2 million to help flip control of the PSC by electing a pro-affordability majority to fight for lower rates, stand against unregulated data center development, and build more affordable clean energy. Last year, Georgia Conservation Voters Action Fund ran their largest campaign ever to shift the balance of power on the PSC board and helped to elect two Democrats to the board for the first time in decades. Georgia Conservation Voters Action Fund’s efforts and leadership in 2025 set the conditions for a majority to be possible this year.

GiveGreen Candidate Fundraising – Over $28 Million
Over twenty eight million dollars has been raised for federal and state candidates through GiveGreen, a project of LCV Victory Fund and NRDC Action Votes, in this election cycle. GiveGreen is the biggest single-issue fundraising platform of any progressive group. This historic effort is being fueled by grassroots donors from across the country who are energized to support climate champions up and down the ballot.

Mobilizing Members
A detailed summary of LCV’s member mobilization work, as well as LCV Action Fund’s endorsements can be found here.

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Paid for by LCV Victory Fund, lcvvictoryfund.org, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.