TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Sara Schreiber, Senior Vice President of Campaigns, LCV Victory Fund
DATE: June 8, 2026
RE: The Next Crucial Voting Bloc: The Energy Bill Voter

The Energy Bill Voter: Deciding the 2026 Midterms

Since taking control in January 2025, Trump and the MAGA-led Congress have enacted policies that have been disastrous to the environment, economy, and democracy. Rising costs are hitting families nationwide, making building more clean, affordable energy more urgent than ever. At the same time, extreme weather and pollution are worsening amid science denial, while authoritarian actions are eroding democracy and voting rights. Instead of expanding clean energy—the cheapest and fastest way to meet demand, reduce pollution, and lower costs—Trump and Republicans have rolled back investments, stalled projects, and cut jobs, while demanding more fossil fuels instead. The result: skyrocketing energy bills are now a top affordability concern for voters, alongside the cost of healthcare, housing, and groceries.

While Trump promised to cut energy costs in half “on day one,” half of voters in our polling believe he is making things worse. Congressional Republicans have seen similar declines in trust on this issue. What was once a perceived strength for Republicans has become a liability at a time when voters are looking for accountability on rising costs.

In races last November, and earlier this year, voters have been sending a clear message: energy affordability is a top-tier issue. Now, in battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, families are feeling the squeeze of rising utility bills—making energy costs likely to be a decisive factor in the 2026 elections. LCV Victory Fund and our partners will do everything we can to reach and mobilize these voters.

Who is the Energy Bill Voter?

The Energy Bill Voter is the parent in Maricopa County, Arizona, who’s seen the price of electricity jump over 20% from where it was three years ago; the retiree in Macomb County, Michigan, who’s cutting back on groceries to keep the lights on; the small business owner in Gwinnett County, Georgia, who’s frustrated by unpredictable and painful cost of gas. Across these battlegrounds, our research shows that 42% of swing voters are “very concerned” about rising electricity costs. Based on research Energy Bill Voters are more likely to be Women, Black and/or Latino, non-college-educated, less engaged with politics, independent, moderate, or soft partisan voters. New polling out this week reinforced this research showing that 35% of all voters, and 51% of undecided voters placed the cost of utilities, like electricity and heating” as their most important issue in deciding who to vote for in Congressional elections.

Voters are not simply frustrated, they’re angry at monopoly utility companies, Big Tech,and Big Oil, who are making record profits while families struggle. Since President Trump took office, energy costs have risen 18% nationwide. Meanwhile, the top 100 oil and gas companies earned more than $30 million every hour in windfall war profits during the first month of the Iran War while gas prices skyrocketed. A Bloomberg analysis found that electricity prices in areas near data centers were rising as much as 267%. At the same time, voters are seeing that it’s Trump and Congressional Republicans who are taking clean energy options off the table when demand and costs are only going up. At the beginning of 2025, voters believed that Trump (by +15) and Congressional Republicans (by +7) were ”making things better for consumers when it comes to energy prices.” Their misguided energy policies have completely destroyed that advantage, and attitudes have swung dramatically in the other direction, with Congressional Republicans now at -37 and Trump at -41. The number of voters blaming high energy costs on Trump and Congressional Republicans’ cancellation of clean energy projects has already risen 5% in the first half of 2026 alone. .

Voters Need to Know Who’s Responsible

When voters hear about members of Congress who supported massive tax giveaways to billionaires and corporations while slashing programs that help everyday families, they understand who is to blame for high energy prices. By cutting funding for clean energy and consumer relief, Trump and his allies shifted the burden from Big Oil onto hardworking Americans and key voting blocs are ready to make them pay a political price.

Clean Energy: The Popular Solution

Voters are desperate for leaders who are focused on solutions and bring more affordable energy to the grid as quickly as possible. Voters believe that using more clean energy will make electricity more affordable. Our most recent message research has shown that presenting voters with a choice between a candidate who wants to lower energy costs by increasing clean energy production or a candidate who opposed clean energy production votes moves voters toward the clean energy candidate by a difference-making 3.4%,

2025: Proof That This Strategy Works

The campaigns and programs that connect with voters’ concern about energy bills, and who offer both immediate and long term solutions, are already winning decisively. In 2025, we supported the work of our state affiliates to deliver key races for climate and clean energy champions in Georgia, New Jersey, and Virginia. This trend continued earlier this spring in Arizona’s Salt River Project Board. The leaders we helped elect are already taking action to lower utility rates and expand clean energy.

Our 2026 Goals & Strategic Approach

In 2026, LCV Victory Fund will execute innovative campaigns to elect pro-clean energy candidates up and down the ballot, while also building power for our movement and issues. Our goals are to:

• Flip the U.S. House to put one lever of federal power back into the hands of pro-clean energy and climate leadership and block Trump’s dangerous agenda.
• Protect existing Democratic seats in the U.S. Senate and pick up new seats, striving to secure a majority this year, or at minimum, make progress to win control in 2028.
• Support state affiliates to elect pro-clean energy and climate candidates to governors’ offices and state legislatures to strengthen states’ ability to unlock new policy progress and counter harmful and costly policies enacted at the federal level.
• Support our state affiliates’ efforts to win targeted races for down-ballot offices that have an outsized impact on clean energy and climate policies, such as public utility commissions.

Our three core strategies:

1. Invest to win and build proof of the power of and public support for clean energy: Early investments in cutting-edge paid media to expand the map of competitive races, giving those voters who are feeling the pain of high energy costs an enemy early on.
2. Target “Energy Bill Voters”: Using research and sophisticated modeling, we’ll develop lists of voters to target, who we’ll reach across a variety of mediums.
3. Meet voters where they are online: A tailored mix of paid media, via streaming services, content creators, and digital platforms such as YouTube, whose popularity has grown dramatically in recent years.

Throughout 2025, we worked with our partners in the environmental community to drive an affordability message that was effective and aligned. In 2026, we’ll continue to execute these strategies in coalition with key allies and partners including our state affiliates, partners in the environmental community, and other allied PACs.

###

Paid for by LCV Victory Fund, www.lcvvictoryfund.org, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.