October Top 5 2022 | LCV Victory Fund

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October Top 5 2022

October 31, 2022

With only one week until Election Day, little is certain about the outcomes in key races. Yet a few things remain clear: voters still rank the climate crisis as a top priority; Congress, led by a pro-environment majority composed solely of Democrats, passed a transformational climate law; and voters trust Democrats far more than Republicans on climate.

With help from supporters like you, LCV Victory Fund has been doing everything in our power to motivate and turn out Climate Voters to protect and elect climate and democracy champions this fall, and we will continue to do so in the final days leading up to November 8.

The stakes of this election couldn’t be higher for our democracy and our planet. Over 60% of voters in the U.S. will have an election denier — someone who supports Trump’s Big Lie — on their ballot this year. Many of these races are extremely close, where voters face a choice between Big-Oil backed, extreme MAGA candidates and pro-environment leaders who support voting rights and equitable action on climate change.

LCV Victory Fund knows that the economy remains the top concern for many voters. But for a subset of voters who are highly motivated by climate change, the issue has the potential to decide the margins of close races this year. Our research has identified more than 2 million such Climate Voters in 17 states, who we are uniquely qualified to turn out this November.

We believe that boosting turnout among Climate Voters — along with other key voter blocs at risk of staying home in the midterm elections — will help make the difference in tight Senate, House, gubernatorial, and other races. A recent FiveThirtyEight.com article, “Can Focusing on Climate Change Help Win Elections?”, explores LCV Victory Fund’s strategy and evidence that efforts on the margins can be pivotal.

We are so grateful for all our supporters in the final days before Election Day. And now, here are LCV Victory Fund’s Top 5 elections activities for October 2022:

1.) Field Program Knocking on Two Million Doors in Battleground States

LCV Victory Fund, our state affiliates, and partners continued our massive field organizing effort with a goal of knocking on two million doors of voters in seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These are states where our efforts can have the maximum impact by turning out voters in key U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and other down-ballot races on Election Day.

In October, we officially pivoted our field campaign to get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. Our 1,000 highly-trained canvassers are going door-to-door to help supporters make plans to vote by mail, vote early in-person, or vote at their polling places on Election Day. As a critical part of our GOTV effort, we are following up with voters we’ve spoken with at their doors through digital ads, direct mail, and phone calls. With new funding bringing the program’s budget to $22 million (up from $16 million at the end of September), we were able to expand operations in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. (The Georgia effort is run by Family Friendly Action PAC, with support from the New American Jobs Fund, a joint effort of LCV Victory Fund and the United Steelworkers.)

To date, organizers have knocked on 1,465,000 doors and had over 207,0o0 conversations with voters. This work has generated 3,260 vote-by-mail signups, 10,222 commitment-to-vote cards, and 16,416 vote-tripling sign-ups.

READ our latest updates—including anecdotes from voters at their doors— and WATCH our most recent TV and digital ads here.

2.) New Mail and Digital Ads Reach Climate Voters in Competitive House Districts

In the final weeks before the election, LCV Victory Fund and Climate Power Action expanded our now-$15 million joint Climate Voters Mobilization program to six new competitive U.S. House races: CA-27, supporting Christy Smith; NC-13, supporting Wiley Nickel; NM-02, supporting Gabe Vasquez; NY-22, supporting Francis Conole; OH-01, supporting Greg Landsman; and OH-13, supporting Emilia Sykes. Digital ads targeting Climate Voters in these districts will run through Election Day, and the same voters will receive five related mail pieces.

These efforts expanded our Climate Voters Mobilization program that had already been reaching voters in seven battleground Senate races and 20 competitive House races. In total, the program is reaching more than two million voters who are uniquely motivated by climate and environmental issues and at risk of not turning out in the midterms. These voters — who we identified using sophisticated modeling and message testing in development since April — are overall likely to be young, female, and racially diverse, to live in suburban or urban areas, and slightly more likely to be college educated.

WATCH a sample ad: “Breathe” (OH-13, supporting Rep. Emilia Sykes)

3.) Final Candidates Named to 2022 Federal Dirty Dozen List

For more than 25 years, LCV Victory Fund’s Dirty Dozen program has targeted candidates — regardless of party affiliation — who consistently side against the environment and are running in races in which LCV Victory Fund has a serious chance to affect the outcome. In October, we added the final candidates to our 2022 federal Dirty Dozen list, including:

  • Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (announced before the first Arizona Senate debate)
  • Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea (announced with a $1.3 million ad buy)
  • Washington Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley, CT-05 candidate George Logan, NH-01 candidate Karoline Leavitt, and KS-03 candidate Amanda Adkins (announced with new digital ads)

These latest additions join previously announced members Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker, Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, North Carolina Senate candidate Rep. Ted Budd, and New Mexico Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-02) on the list of the worst of the worst federal candidates for our environment and our nation’s democracy.

WATCH a sample ad, “Dangerously Unfit” in the NH-01 race.

4.) State Affiliates Mobilize Climate Voters in Key Governors Races

In October, LCV Victory Fund state affiliates launched a $3.3 million investment to help protect and elect pro-climate, pro-democracy governors in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Our state affiliates are using cable, digital, and direct mail ads to highlight contrasts between candidates and the environmental stakes of each election, targeting Climate Voters who turned out in 2020 but risk not showing up for pro-climate gubernatorial candidates in November. These Climate Voters are key to protecting governors who have strong climate records, as well as winning open seats.

WATCH sample ads supporting candidates and READ about these efforts here, including:

  • Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund’s work to re-elect Gov. Janet Mills (“Emerald”)
  • Conservation Voters of Michigan PAC’s work to re-elect Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (“Big“)
  • Conservation Voters of PA Victory Fund’s work to elect Attorney General Josh Shapiro and defeat extreme MAGA candidate — and DIrty Dozen in the States member — Doug Mastriano (“Cleaner, healthier PA”)

5.) Final Candidates Added to 2022 Dirty Dozen in the States

In October, our state affiliates announced the final six candidates to the 2022 Dirty Dozen in the States list. Modeled after LCV Victory Fund’s federal Dirty Dozen, the Dirty Dozen in the States highlights twelve of the worst environmental candidates in the nation at the state and local level. The first six candidates were announced in August. Members are chosen because they have consistently sided against the environment and are a danger to our democracy.

The final candidates are:

  • Wisconsin candidate for Governor Tim Michels
  • New Mexico candidate for Governor Mark Ronchetti
  • Maryland candidate for Governor Dan Cox
  • Connecticut candidate for Governor Bob Stefanowski
  • Arizona Corporation Commission candidate Kevin Thompson
  • Michigan Attorney General candidate Matthew DePerno

For more information and to see the full 2022 DIrty Dozen in the States list, click here.