TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Sara Schreiber, Senior Vice President of Campaigns, LCV Victory Fund
DATE: September 24, 2026
RE: MEMO: New Cook Analysis Reinforces Energy Affordability and Gas Prices Could Swing the Midterms

With just 40 days left until Election Day, today The Cook Political Report released a new analysis that identifies the “doubly disenchanted” voter as a crucial voting bloc that could determine the outcome of the Midterms. These voters are defined as being under the age of 35, Republican-leaning Independents and lower income/education. Most notably, according to Cook, “they draw the line on lowering gas prices and energy costs, giving Democrats a 37%-27% advantage – suggesting it’s the one critical pain point that could ultimately cause them to defect.”

These are, in many respects, the same voters we have been focused on all year and LCV Victory fund is well positioned to move this audience to be the difference-maker in this election. At the start of the election cycle, we announced our strategy to target the “Energy Bill Voter,” who, similarly to the “doubly disenchanted,” is more likely to be a non-college-educated, less engaged with politics, independent, moderate, or soft partisan voter. This voting bloc was based on research that showed that 42% of swing voters are “very concerned” about rising electricity costs. 

Since starting this strategy, we have seen that this electorate is not only concerned about energy affordability, but effectively moved by our programs focused on connecting clean energy cuts to rising energy costs. Recent polling following our early House program, which ran through July and August, determined that our ads which ran in 3 competitive House races (AZ-02, MI-04, VA-01) moved voters by a net of 4 percentage points in favor of the Democrat. Using the knowledge of the “Energy Bill Voter,” these ads focused on how Republican incumbents voted to cut clean energy and drove up energy costs to benefit Big Oil and Big Polluters.

This fall, voters are experiencing skyrocketing gas prices across the country and are coming off of a summer where utility bills reached record highs. Since President Trump took office, energy costs have risen 18% nationwide. At the same time, Big Oil brought in record profits in Q2 with over $40 billion. Unsurprisingly, voters are angry at monopoly utility companies, Big Tech and Big Oil, who continue to rake in record profits.

As we head into the final weeks of the cycle, we are confident in our strategy and focused on continuing to meet voters where they are whether that be on the screens they watch most or at their doorsteps to ensure they know that there are candidates who are focused on lowering costs across the board, including energy costs. 

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Paid for by LCV Victory Fund, www.lcvvictoryfund.org, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.