MEMO: LCV Victory Fund Takes the Climate Case to Florida Swing Voters
To: Interested Parties
From: Pete Maysmith, SVP of Campaigns, LCV Victory Fund
Date: July 31, 2020
Re: LCV Victory Fund Takes the Climate Case to Florida Swing Voters
Talking to Florida voters about climate change is key to defeating Donald Trump in battleground states — and the Sunshine State is ground zero for the consequences of climate change and ground zero for the political cost to Donald Trump.
LCV Victory Fund and Priorities USA Action are launching our latest Florida-specific advertisement — called “Time” — to make the case about climate to swing voters who care about the environment. This is part of our ongoing $14 million environmental swing voter program — a state-of-the-art, high-impact program designed to layer digital and direct mail advertising about environmental issues to the 1.58 million voters across the battleground states who are most persuadable. In researching the message, we’ve found that tying the president’s denial of science in response to both the climate crisis and the coronavirus pandemic can give Biden the edge needed to win Florida on November 3.
CASE STUDY ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA
A combination of modeling and polling helped us to identify 156,069 environmental swing voters in Florida. Our universe of Florida voters is mostly female (78%), Independent (88%), and younger (67% under 50). Notably, Latinx voters make up 40% of the universe. Florida’s Latinx families are on the front lines of climate change and care deeply about taking action to combat the crisis — a 2019 Public Policy Polling survey found that 77% of Florida Latino voters support moving to a completely clean energy economy by 2050, compared to just 58% support among all voters surveyed.
When the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. this spring, we updated our messaging to meet the moment. We found that tying Trump’s repeated denial of scientific warnings about the threat of coronavirus, refusal to listen to scientists’ warnings about climate change, and public comments that both crises were a “hoax” could move Florida swing voters in support of Biden by 4-8 more points over a straight climate message.
Based on these findings, we’ve used the following strategy in a layered English and Spanish language digital and direct mail campaign to Florida environmental swing voters since May:
- Priority 1: Make sure Florida voters know that Trump thinks climate change is a “hoax” and won’t listen to the experts
- Priority 2: Connect Trump’s denial of climate change with his denial of the coronavirus
- Priority 3: Make clear the real consequences of climate change on Florida families
These environmental swing voters aren’t just learning about Trump’s denial of climate change through their computer screens, they’re also finding out about it in their mail boxes – a layered approach.
LCV Victory Fund is making the case about the danger of Trump’s anti-science climate denialism across the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in our Environmental Swing Voter program. LCV Victory Fund is partnering with Priorities USA Action for the digital programs in Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each place, people are hearing the dangers of Trump’s environmental record, its similarities to his failed coronavirus response, and the contrast with Vice President Joe Biden’s leadership on climate
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